Author Archives: Haley Dore

Review of 2019, outlook for 2020 – the beat goes on – Oliver’s Insights

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Key points:

  • 2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong.
  • 2020 is likely to see global growth pick up with monetary policy remaining easy. Expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.25% and to undertake quantitative easing.
  • Against this backdrop, share markets are likely to see reasonable but more constrained & volatile returns, and bond yields are likely to back up resulting in good but more modest returns from a diversified mix of assets.
  • The main things to keep an eye on are: the trade wars; the US election; global growth; Chinese growth; and fiscal versus monetary stimulus in Australia.

2019 – growth down, returns up

Christmas 2018 was not a great one for many investors with an almost 20% slump in US shares from their high in September to their low on Christmas Eve, capping off a year of bad returns from share markets and leading to much trepidation as to what 2019 would hold. But 2019 has turned out to be a good year for investors, defying the gloom of a year ago. In fact, some might see it as perverse – given all the bad news around and the hand wringing about recession, high debt levels, inequality and the rise of the populist leaders.  Then again, that’s often the way markets work – bottoming when everyone is gloomy then climbing a wall of worry. The big global negatives of 2019 were:

  • The trade war and escalating US-China tensions generally. A trade truce and talks collapsed several times leading to a new ratcheting up of tariffs before new talks into year end.
  • Middle East Tensions flared periodically but without a lasting global impact & the Brexit saga dragged on although a near-term hard Brexit looks to have been avoided.
  • Slowing growth in China to 6%. This largely reflected an earlier credit tightening, but the trade war also impacted.
  • Slowing global growth as the trade war depressed investment & combined with an inventory downturn and tougher auto emissions to weigh on manufacturing & profits.
  • Recession obsession with “inverted yield curves” – many saw the growth slowdown as turning into a recession.

But it wasn’t all negative as the growth slowdown & low inflation saw central banks ease, with the Fed cutting three times and the ECB reinstating quantitative easing. This was the big difference with 2018 which saw monetary tightening.

Australia also saw growth slow – to below 2% – as the housing construction downturn, weak consumer spending and investment and the drought all weighed. This in turn saw unemployment and underemployment drift up, wages growth remain weak and inflation remain below target. As a result, the RBA was forced to change course and cut interest rates three times from June and to contemplate quantitative easing. The two big surprises in Australia were the re-election of the Coalition Government which provided policy continuity and the rebound in the housing market from mid-year.

While much of the news was bad, monetary easing and the prospect it provided for stronger growth ahead combined with the low starting point resulted in strong returns for investors.

  • Global shares saw strong gains as markets recovered from their 2018 slump, bond yields fell making shares very cheap and monetary conditions eased. This was despite several trade related setbacks along the way. Global share returns were boosted on an unhedged basis because the $A fell.
  • Emerging market shares did well but lagged given their greater exposure to trade and manufacturing and a still rising $US along with political problems in some countries.
  • Australian share prices finally surpassed their 2007 record high thanks to the strong global lead, monetary easing and support for yield sensitive sectors from low bond yields.
  • Government bonds had strong returns as bond yields fell as inflation and growth slowed, central banks cut rates and quantitative easing returned.
  • Real estate investment trusts were strong on the back of lower bonds yields and monetary easing.
  • Unlisted commercial property and infrastructure continued to do well as investors sought their still relatively high yields. However, Australian retail property suffered a correction.
  • Commodity prices rose with oil & iron up but metals down.
  • Australian house prices fell further into mid-year before rebounding as the Federal election removed the threat to negative gearing & the capital gains tax discount, the RBA cut interest rates and the 7% mortgage test was relaxed.
  • Cash and bank term deposit returns were poor reflecting new record low RBA interest rates.
  • The $A fell with a lower interest rates and a strong $US.
  • Reflecting strong gains in most assets, balanced superannuation funds look to have seen strong returns.

2020 vision – growth up, returns still good

The global slowdown still looks like the mini slowdowns around 2012 and 2015-16. Business conditions indicators have slowed but remain far from GFC levels. See next chart

While the slowdown has persisted for longer than we expected – mostly due to President Trump’s escalating trade wars – a global recession remains unlikely, barring a major external shock. The normal excesses that precede recessions like high inflation, rapid growth in debt or excessive investment have not been present in the US and globally. While global monetary conditions tightened in 2018, they remained far from tight and the associated “inversion” in yield curves has been very shallow and brief. And monetary conditions have now turned very easy again with a significant proportion of central banks easing this year. See chart. The big global themes for 2020 are likely to be:

  • A pause in the trade war but geopolitical risk to remain high.The risks remain high on the trade front – with President Trump still ramping up mini tariffs on various countries to sound tough to his base and uncertainty about a deal with China, but he is likely to tone it down through much of 2020 to reduce the risk to the US economy knowing that if he lets it slide into recession and/or unemployment rise he likely won’t get re-elected. A “hard Brexit” is also unlikely albeit risks remain. That said geopolitical risks will remain high given the rise of populism and continuing tensions between the US & China. In particular, the US election will be an increasing focus if a hard-left candidate wins the Democrat nomination.
  • Global growth to stabilise and turn up. Global business conditions PMIs have actually increased over the last few months suggesting that monetary easing may be getting traction. Global growth is likely to average around 3.3% in 2020, up from around 3% in 2019. Overall, this should support reasonable global profit growth.
  • Continuing low inflation and low interest rates. While global growth is likely to pick up it won’t be overly strong and so spare capacity will remain. Which means that inflationary pressure will remain low. In turn this points to continuing easy monetary conditions globally, with some risk that the Fed may have a fourth rate cut.
  • The US dollar is expected to peak and head down.During times of uncertainty and slowing global growth like over the last two years the $US tends to strengthen partly reflecting the lower exposure of the US economy to cyclical sectors like manufacturing and materials. This is likely to reverse in the year ahead as cyclical sectors improve.

In Australia, strength in infrastructure spending and exports will help keep the economy growing but it’s likely to remain constrained to around 2% by the housing construction downturn, subdued consumer spending and the drought. This is likely to see unemployment drift up, wages growth remain weak and underlying inflation remain below 2%. With the economy remaining well below full employment and the inflation target, the RBA is expected to cut the official cash rate to 0.25% by March, & undertake quantitative easing by mid-year, unless the May budget sees significant fiscal stimulus. Some uptick in growth is likely later in the year as housing construction bottoms, stimulus impacts and stronger global growth helps.

Implications for investors

Improved global growth and still easy monetary conditions should drive reasonable investment returns through 2020 but they are likely to be more modest than the double-digit gains of 2019 as the starting point of higher valuations and geopolitical risks are likely to constrain gains & create some volatility:

  • Global shares are expected to see returns around 9.5% helped by better growth and easy monetary policy.
  • Cyclical, non-US and emerging market shares are likely to outperform, particularly if the US dollar declines and trade threat recedes as we expect.
  • Australian shares are likely to do okay but with returns also constrained to around 9% given sub-par economic & profit growth. Expect the ASX 200 to reach 7000 by end 2019.
  • Low starting point yields and a slight rise in yields through the year are likely to result in low returns from bonds.
  • Unlisted commercial property and infrastructure are likely to continue benefiting from the search for yield but the decline in retail property values will still weigh on property returns.
  • National capital city house prices are expected to see continued strong gains into early 2020 on the back of pent up demand, rate cuts and the fear of missing out. However, poor affordability, the weak economy and still tight lending standards are expected to see the pace of gains slow leaving property prices up 10% for the year as a whole.
  • Cash & bank deposits are likely to provide very poor returns.
  • The $A is likely to fall to around $US0.65 as the RBA eases further but then drift up a bit as global growth improves to end 2019 little changed.

What to watch?

The main things to keep an eye on in 2020 are as follows:

  • The US trade wars – we are assuming some sort of de-escalation in the run up to the presidential election, but Trump is Trump and often can’t help but throw grenades.
  • US politics: The Senate is unlikely to remove Trump from office if the House votes to impeach and another shutdown is also unlikely but both could cause volatility as could the US election if a hard-left Democrat gets up (albeit unlikely).
  • A hard Brexit looks like being avoided but watch UK/EU free trade negotiations through the year.
  • Global growth indicators – like the PMI shown in the chart above need to keep rising.
  • Chinese growth – a continued slowing in China would be a major concern for global growth.
  • Monetary v fiscal stimulus in Australia – significant fiscal stimulus could head off further RBA rate cuts and quantitative easing.

Dr. Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist

Five reasons why the $A may be close to the bottom – Oliver’s Insights

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Key Points

  • In the absence of significant fiscal stimulus soon, further RBA monetary easing both in the form of rate cuts and quantitative easing point to more downside for the $A. 
  • However, there is good reason to believe we may be close to the low in the $A (or have already seen it): it has already had a large fall; it is just below fair value; the global economic cycle is likely to turn up next year; sentiment towards the $A is very negative; and the current account is in surplus.
  • Our base case remains for the $A to fall to $USO.65 in the months ahead as the RBA eases further, but at the end of 2020 it’s likely to be stuck around $USO.65-70.

Introduction

For a long time, we have been bearish on the Australian dollar, seeing it fall into the high $USO.60s and revising this to around $USO.65 in May. In early October it fell to a low of $USO.6671. While negatives remain significant for the $A there is good reason to believe that we are close to the low or may have already seen it. This note looks at the main issues.

The negatives for the $A are well known

The big negative for the Australian dollar is that growth is weaker in Australia and spare capacity is much higher than in the US. For example, labour market underutilisation is 13.8% in Australia versus just 7% in the US, on the latest available data real growth in Australia is running at 1.4% year on year compared to 2% in the US and that translates to per capita GDP growth of -0.2% in Australia compared to 1.4% in the US. And the drag on growth from the housing downturn, weak consumer spending and the drought is likely to keep growth relatively weak in Australia for the next six months or so.

This will keep inflation lower in Australia than in the US. Ideally more fiscal stimulus is required, and the Government has brought forward infrastructure spending. But combined with extra drought assistance this only amounts to an extra 0.1% of GDP of fiscal stimulus over the next 18 months which is not enough to make a significant difference to the growth outlook. So in the absence of more significant fiscal stimulus soon, the RBA is likely to cut the cash rate further to 0.25% and undertake some quantitative easing (i.e using printed money to boost growth). By contrast the Fed is at or close to the low in US rates and is unlikely to return to quantitative easing. This will continue to make it relatively less attractive to park money in Australia. As can be seen in the next chart, periods of a low and falling interest rate differential between Australia and the US usually see a low and falling $A.

So the higher probability of further monetary easing in Australia points to more downside for the Australian dollar. Of course, a shift in the policy focus away from monetary easing and towards greater fiscal stimulus would be more positive for the Australian dollar but this looks unlikely in the short term with the Government more focused on delivering a budget surplus.

Five positives for the $A

However, it’s no longer an easy (in hindsight) one way bet for the $A. There are basically five positives. First, the $A has already had a big fall. To its recent low it’s fallen nearly 40% from a multi-decade high of $US1.11 in 2011 & it’s had a fall of 18% from a high in January last year of $US0.81.

Second, this decline has taken it to just below fair value. This contrasts to the situation back in 2011 when it was well above long-term fair value. The best guide to this is what is called purchasing power parity according to which exchange rates should equilibrate the price of a basket of goods and services across countries. Consistent with this the $A tends to move in line with relative price differentials over the long term.

And right now, it’s just below fair value. Of course, as can be seen in the last chart, the $A could fall sharply below fair value as it tends to swing from one extreme to another. But this depends on the cyclical outlook for global growth and commodity prices. Which brings us to the next positive.

Third, the global economic and commodity price cycle is likely to turn up next year in response to global monetary easing, a bottoming in the global inventory and manufacturing cycle and a pause in President Trump’s trade wars as he refocuses on winning the presidential election.

Based on historical experience, this should work against the US dollar as the US economy is less exposed to cyclical sectors than the rest of the world (which tends to see capital flow out of the US when global growth picks up and into the US when it slows). A weaker US dollar would in turn be positive for commodity prices & the $A, which is a “risk on” currency given its greater exposure to cyclical industries like raw materials.

Fourth, this comes at a time when global sentiment towards the $A remains very negative as reflected in short or underweight positions in the $A being at extremes – see the next chart. In other words, many of those who want to sell the $A have already done so and this leaves it vulnerable to a rally if there is good news.

Finally, the current account has returned to surplus in Australia. The high iron ore price has helped, but so too have strong resource export volumes, services exports and a rising net equity position in Australia’s favour on the back of rising superannuation assets offshore. So the improved current account may be a permanent feature. This means less dependence on foreign capital inflows which is $A positive.

So where to from here?

The prospects for weaker growth and more monetary easing in Australia relative to the US suggests short-term downside pressure for the $A remains. But with the $A having already had a big fall to just below long-term fair value, the global growth outlook likely to improve, short $A positions running high and the current account in surplus it’s likely that the $A may be close to, or may have already seen, its low. Our base remains for it to fall to around $US0.65 as the RBA continues to ease but at the end of 2020 it’s likely to be stuck around $US0.65-70 (or I’ll be honest & admit I don’t have a strong view either way!).

Of course, if the US/China trade war escalates badly again and the global economy falls apart, causing a surge in unemployment in Australia as export demand and confidence collapses and another big leg down in-house prices the Aussie will fall a lot more…but that’s looking less likely.

What does it mean for investors and the RBA?

With the risks skewed towards the $A bottoming soon the case to maintain a large exposure to offshore assets that are not hedged back to Australian dollars has weakened. Of course, maintaining a position in foreign exchange for Australian-based investors against the $A provides some protection should things go wrong globally (say in relation to trade) or in Australia (say in relation to household debt).

For the RBA a shift in global forces towards being more supportive of the Australian dollar over the year ahead would complicate the RBA’s desire to boost Australian economic growth. Stronger demand for Australian exports would be positive, but upwards pressure on the $A would suggest that further monetary easing may be needed to help keep it down.

Dr. Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist

Franklin Templeton Market Outlook 2020

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It’s that time of year when Franklin Templeton’s investment leaders put pen to paper and share their insights into what lies ahead in 2020, both globally and closer to home. See below Franklin Templeton’s market outlooks across a range of asset classes and sectors. 

Global Fixed Income Outlook

“Abundant liquidity in the market fueled by unconventional monetary policy continues to be a source of financial market distortion, and keeps pushing investors toward riskier, less liquid assets.” Sonal Desai, PHD, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group.

Australian Fixed Income Outlook

“The RBA is likely to cut to 0.50% in early 2020 from where it will consider options for other forms of easing. We feel that the authorities are responding to the record levels of leverage across economies and recognising the dis-inflationary impetus that brings.” Andrew Canobi, Director, Australian Fixed Income.

Global Equity Outlook

“We think investors need not be anxious about global equity markets in 2020 even as markets have staged a strong advance throughout much of 2019 and economic data has softened.” Stephen Dover. CFA, EVP, Head of Equities, Franklin Templeton.

Australian Equity Outlook

“The capacity for fiscal stimulus differentiates Australia’s economic outlook from many global peers. Combined with the recent rate cuts from the Reserve Bank, the risk of recession in the domestic economy has moderated.” Alastair Hunter, Chief Investment Officer, Balances Equity Management, Franklin Templeton.

Global Growth Stocks Outlook

“Global Equity markets face an uncertain 2020, but if the consumer stays resilient and bond yields remain low, global stocks could remain attractive relative to other asset classes.” John Remmert, SVP, Senior Portfolio Manager, Franklin Equity Group.

Why super and growth assets like shares really are long term investments – Oliver’s Insights

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Key Points

  • While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term under-performance versus bonds & cash, they provide superior long-term returns. It makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them.
  • The best approach is to simply recognize that super and investing in shares is a long-term investment.

Introduction

After sharp share market falls when headlines scream about the billions wiped off the market the usual questions are: what caused the fall? what’s the outlook? and what does it mean for superannuation? The correct answer to the latter should be something like “nothing really, as super is a long-term investment and share market volatility is normal.” But that often sounds like marketing spin. However, the reality is that – except for those who are into trading or are at, or close to, retirement – shares and super really are long-term investments. Here’s why.

Super funds and shares

Superannuation is aimed (within reason) at providing maximum (risk-adjusted) funds for use in retirement. So typical Australian super funds have a bias towards shares and other growth assets, particularly for younger members, and some exposure to defensive assets like bonds and cash in order to avoid excessive short-term volatility in returns.

The power of compound interest

These approaches seek to take maximum advantage of the power of compound interest. The next chart shows the value of a $100 investment in each of Australian cash, bonds, shares, and residential property from 1926 assuming any interest, dividends and rents are reinvested along the way. As return series for commercial property and infrastructure only go back a few decades I have used residential property as a proxy.

Because shares and property provide higher returns over long periods the value of an investment in them compounds to a much higher amount over long periods. So, it makes sense to have a decent exposure to them when saving for retirement. The higher return from shares and growth assets reflects compensation for the greater risk in investing in them – in terms of capital loss, volatility and illiquidity – relative to cash & bonds.

But investors don’t have 90 years?

Of course, we don’t have ninety odd years to save for retirement. In fact, our natural tendency is to think very short term. And this is where the problem starts. On a day to day basis shares are down almost as much as they are up. See the next chart. So, day to day, it’s pretty much a coin toss as to whether you will get good news or bad. So, it’s understandable that many are skeptical of them. But if you just look monthly and allow for dividends, the historical experience tells us you will only get bad news around a third of the time. If you go out to once a decade, positive returns have been seen 100% of the time for Australian shares and 82% for US shares.

This can also be demonstrated in the following charts. On a rolling 12 month ended basis the returns from shares bounce around all over the place relative to cash and bonds.

However, over rolling ten-year periods, shares have invariably done better, although there have been some periods where returns from bonds and cash have done better, albeit briefly.

Pushing the horizon out to rolling 20-year returns has almost always seen shares do even better, although a surge in cash and bond returns from the 1970s/1980s (after high inflation pushed interest rates up) has seen the gap narrow.

Over rolling 40-year periods – the working years of a typical person – shares have always done better.

This is all consistent with the basic proposition that higher short-term volatility from shares (often reflecting exposure to periods of falling profits and a risk that companies go bust) is rewarded over the long term with higher returns.

But why not try and short-term market moves?

The temptation to do this is immense. With the benefit of hindsight many swings in markets like the tech boom and bust and the GFC look inevitable and hence forecastable and so it’s natural to think “why not give it a go?” by switching between say cash and shares within your super to anticipate market moves. Fair enough if you have a process and put the effort in. But without a tried and tested market timing process, trying to time the market is difficult. A good way to demonstrate this is with a comparison of returns if an investor is fully invested in shares versus missing out on the best (or worst) days. The next chart shows that if you were fully invested in Australian shares from January 1995, you would have returned 9.7% pa (with dividends but not allowing for franking credits, tax and fees).

If by trying to time the market you avoided the 10 worst days (yellow bars), you would have boosted your return to 12.4% pa. And if you avoided the 40 worst days, it would have been boosted to 17.3% pa! But this is very hard, and many investors only get out after the bad returns have occurred, just in time to miss some of the best days. For example, if by trying to time the market you miss the 10 best days (blue bars), the return falls to 7.6% pa. If you miss the 40 best days, it drops to just 3.6% pa.

The following chart shows the difficulties of short-term timing in another way. It shows the cumulative return of two portfolios.

  • A fixed balanced mix of 70 per cent Australian equities, 25 per cent bonds and five per cent cash;
  • A “switching portfolio” which starts off with the above but moves 100 per cent into cash after any negative calendar year in the balanced portfolio and doesn’t move back until after the balanced portfolio has a calendar year of positive returns. We have assumed a two-month lag.

Over the long run the switching portfolio produces an average return of 8.8% pa versus 10.2% pa for the balanced mix. From a $100 investment in 1928 the switching portfolio would have grown to $218,040 compared to $705,497 for the constant mix.

Key Messages

First, while shares and other growth assets go through periods of short-term under-performance relative to bonds and cash, they provide superior returns over the long term. As such it makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them.

Second, switching to cash after a bad patch is not the best strategy for maximising wealth over time.

Third, the less you look at your investments the less you will be disappointed. This reduces the chance of selling at the wrong time or adopting an overly cautious stance.

The best approach is to simply recognize that super and investing in shares is a long-term investment. The exceptions to this are if you are really into putting in the effort to getting short-term trading right and/or you are close to, or in, retirement.

Dr. Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist

Planning for what’s next – Living in retirement

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Living in retirement can last decades as life expectancies continue to increase. You will need to plan for different stages of retirement – starting with when you are relatively young and active through your later years when you may find yourself slowing down, both physically and mentally.

 

Lifestyle

  • Continue to reinvent yourself

Whether through physical activity, staying socially connected, or by learning something new, engaging in physical and mental activities encourages your health and well-being as you age.

  • Retirement can mean continuing to work

Find something you enjoy whether it is part-time, an encore career, or volunteering.

 

Financial

  • Keep and eye on your budget and your income

Stay fiscally flexible. Be prepared to make adjustments to your spending and your lifestyle. Financial conditions are seldom the same year after year.

  • Review your asset allocations

Be sure that your investment portfolio reflects your age and risk tolerance. Remember, generating retirement income from investments is not the same thing as growing your investments.

  • Monitor your situation regularly and adjust if conditions warrant

This is especially critical in terms of distributions and regular income payments from your accounts, so you can ensure your savings sustain you through your later years.

  • Be proactive in your tax planning

Plan ahead and understand the tax implications of your investment decisions. Consider getting money to your heirs of your financial situation allows.

  • Mange debt

Pay down your debt, including your mortgage.

  • Consider getting professional financial advice

An objective third-party review can be critical at this stage and may assist you in developing a sustainable withdrawal strategy.

 

Health

  • Make a plan for your future medical expenses

Healthcare expenses can be large or small, expected or unexpected. Think ahead to line up the income you need to meet these expenses.

  • Review your situation regularly

Evaluate your current and potential future healthcare needs, and determine whether private health insurance (or your current cover) is appropriate.

 

Protection

  • Review your estate plan
  • Who do you trust?

Establish powers of attorney in case you are incapacitated.

  • Have a family meeting

Openly discuss your finances in the event that you can no longer manage your own affairs. Educate adult children regarding treatment of your asset upon your death.

 

Pitfalls

  • Elder financial abuse is a growing problem

Take steps early to protect yourself. Consider confiding in relatives or a trusted friend regarding your financial situation.

  • Review and assess

Confirm that all beneficiary designations are in place and that you have a proper will, or other estate planning tool, to ensure your money goes where you want it to go.

Planning for what’s next – Approaching retirement

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As retirement nears, you will want to continue planning for this next phase of your life. Remain focused on saving for retirement while beginning to envision and organise how you plan to enjoy these future years.

Lifetsyle

  • Determine what you want to do in retirement.

Maybe you don’t want to stop working altogether, but would rather work part-time or volunteer. Consider ways to keep your mind and body active through physical exercise and hobbies. Determine how to stay connected to friends and family.

  • Want to relocate?

Consider spending time there to help determine whether the move will be right for you.

  • Prepare for the unexpected

Have an emergency fund and plan in place.

Financial

  • Don’t stop saving!

Continue to contribute as much as you can financially handle to your retirement savings, as it is still important. For example, setting up a Transition to Retirement pension can be used in conjunction with increased concessional super contributions to save tax in the lead-up to retirement, and your super balance will get a boost through any increased concessional contributions.

  • Develop a retirement income strategy

Identify sources of income in retirement. Determine how much the sources will generate, and when to use them.

  • What about the Age Pension?

Determine whether you are eligible for a part or full Age Pension. Even if you aren’t eligible, you may still be entitled to other benefits, such as cheaper medicines and reduced water and council rates.

  • What are you planning to do with your superannuation account(s)?

If you have multiple superannuation accounts, consolidating them into one can save you some fees and paperwork. As you approach retirement, your super fund or financial adviser can help you with options for converting your super savings into a stream of income in retirement.

  • Review your asset allocations

How you allocate money to each asset class is one of the most important decisions faced when constructing an investment portfolio. As retirement gets closer, you’ll want to pay closer attention to how your portfolio is allocated.

  • Manage debt

Pay down your debt, including your mortgage.

  • Consider getting professional financial advice

With many decisions, an objective third-party review can be critical at this stage

Health

  • Health care in retirement can be a major expense

Determine how you will cover pharmaceutical and other medical expenses.

  • Understand all insurance options

Medicare doesn’t cover everything. Consider private health insurance for seniors and determine whether you qualify for a government rebate.

Protection

  • Make informed insurance decisions

Decide if long-term care insurance makes sense for you

  • Your plans are not set in stone

Review your estate plan and beneficiary designations and adjust if necessary

Pitfalls

  • Review and assess

Review your retirement savings and investments, as you still have time to make changes and close any gaps to help you enjoy your later years. Make sure your will is up-to-date.

  • Managing ongoing dependent children

Whether you decide to provide continuing support or adopt a “tough love” strategy, consider the impact on your retirement plans – both financially and emotionally.

Preparing for what’s next

When retirement is approaching, it’s important to plan for what’s next. Below are several resources to help you better understand your current situation and get your questions answered.

Oliver’s Insights-Five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook

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Key Points:

  • There is no denying concerns about global debt, seemingly never ending QE, more debt trading on negative interest rates, inequality and geopolitical threats.
  • However, some of these concerns are exaggerated and there are five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook. In particular, there is good reason to expect a pick-up in global growth over the next 12 months. This should help underpin further gains in share markets over the next 6-12 months.

There is always someone telling us that there is some sort of economic/financial disaster coming our way. However, there does seem to be a higher level of hand wringing now about the global economic outlook than normal. These concerns basically go something like this:

  • Global debt – both public and private – is at record levels relative to GDP and with public debt ratios so high there is no scope for fiscal stimulus should things go really bad.
  • Years of quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies like negative interest rates by central banks in major advanced countries haven’t worked and seem to have no end.
  • More and more debt globally is trading on negative interest rates – it’s now around $US14 trillion including around 25% of all government bonds – which is unnatural and causing distortions in valuing assets with risks of asset bubbles.
  • Inequality (as measured by Gini coefficients) is rising – particularly in the US – which is driving a populist backlash against rationalist market-friendly economic policies of globalisation/free trade (as evident in Trump’s trade wars), deregulation and privatisation.

  • This along with the relative decline of US economic and military power is contributing to geopolitical tensions as we move from a “unipolar world” (dominated by the US after the end of the Cold War) to a “multipolar world” as other countries (China, Russia, Iran/Saudi Arabia, etc) move in to fill the gap left by the US or even “challenge” the US.

This is all seen as being bad for global growth and hence growth assets, all of which is being heightened by the downturn in global growth seen over the last year or so.

Five reasons not to be too fussed.

There is no denying these concerns. Debt is at record levels globally. QE has been running in various iterations for more than a decade now in some countries. Inequality is up – albeit its mainly a US and emerging country issue. Support for market-friendly economic rationalist policies such as globalisation, deregulation and privatisation seems to have waned (except in France). And geopolitical risks are up. All these developments point to the risk of slower global growth and investment returns ahead and may figure in the next major bear market. But there is always something to worry about (otherwise shares would offer no return advantage over cash) and trying to time the next downturn is hard. Moreover, there are five reasons not to get too fussed about the global outlook.

1. Debt is more complicated than being at a record
History tells us that the next major crisis will involve debt problems of some sort. But what’s new – they all do! Just because global debt is at record levels does not mean that a crisis is imminent. There are several points to note here:

  • debt has been trending up ever since it was invented;
  • comparing debt to income (or GDP) is like comparing apples to oranges as debt is a stock and income is a flow – the key is to compare debt against assets and here the numbers are not so scary because debt and assets tend to rise together
  • debt interest burdens are low thanks to low interest rates
  • all of the rise in debt in developed countries since the GFC has come from public debt and the risk of default here is very low because governments can tax and print money.

While Modern Monetary Theory has its issues, it does remind us that as long as a government borrows in its own currency and inflation is not a problem, it has more flexibility to provide stimulus than high public debt to GDP ratios suggest.

2. QE’s end point is not necessarily negative

Quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies actually do appear to have helped. Since its high in 2013 unemployment in the Eurozone has fallen from 12% to 7.5% and in the US it fell from 9% in 2011 to 4% in 2017 enabling the Fed to start unwinding unconventional monetary policy. Inflation has not been returned to 2% targets, but wages growth has lifted and at the start of last year it looked like the global economy was getting back to normal. What kicked the global economy off the rails again was a combination of Trump’s trade wars, a debt squeeze in China and tougher auto emission controls. But this it wasn’t due to a failure of quantitative easing.

As to how quantitative easing is eventually unwound there is no easy answer, but there is no reason to believe that it will end with a calamity. First, in the absence of a surge in inflation necessitating a withdrawal of the money that has been pumped into the global economy there is no reason to withdraw it. And when inflation does start to rise it can be reversed gradually by central banks not replacing their bond holdings as they mature.

Second, the assets central banks purchased as part of QE have boosted the size of their balance sheets but the varied size of central bank balance sheets from one country to another as a share of their economy shows that there is no natural optimal level for them. In fact, the Fed is now resuming natural growth in its balance sheet as occurred prior to the GFC so its balance sheet may just stay high (as along as inflation is not a problem).

Finally, if push came to shove just consider what would happen if say the Bank of Japan told the Japanese government that it no longer expects payment at maturity for the 50% of Government bonds it holds? The BoJ would write down its bond holding and the Japanese Government would suffer a loss on its investment in the BoJ but that would be matched by a write down in its liabilities. Basically, nothing would happen except that Japanese government debt would fall dramatically!

3. Inflation and interest rates are low

The key thing that has caused many sceptics to miss out on good returns this decade is that they focussed on low inflation as reflecting low demand growth but missed out on the positive valuation boost to assets like shares and property that low inflation and low interest rates provides.

4. Rapid technological innovation and growth in middle income Asia is continuing

This is well known and has been done to death, so I won’t go over it suffice to say that there are still a lot of positives helping underpin the global outlook and these two remain big ones.

5. Global growth looks like it may pick up

While the slowdown in global growth over the last 18 months has been scary and associated with share market volatility, the conditions are not in place for a deeper slide into global recession like we saw at the time of the GFC – excesses like overspending, surging inflation, excessive monetary tightening are not present. In fact, various signs are pointing to a cyclical global pick up ahead:

  • Bond yields are up from their lows & look to be trending up
  • The US yield curve is now mostly positive – suggesting the inversion seen this year may have been another false recession signal like seen in 1996 and 1998

  • European, Japanese & emerging shares are looking better
  • Cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary, industrials and banks are looking better
  • The US dollar looks like it might have peaked; and
  • Business conditions PMIs for the US, Europe & China were flattish in October & may be stabilising. This saw the global manufacturing PMI go sideways and a rise in the services PMI and both still look like the 2012 and 2016 slowdowns.

These could be pointers to global monetary easing getting traction. Of course, much depends on what happens to geopolitical risks. The US election next year will be a big one to keep an eye on and beyond that US/China tensions look likely to be with us for years. But there is reason to expect some respite in the short term on the geopolitical front:

First, the economic slowdown in both China and the US is pressuring both to defuse the trade dispute in the short term. This pressure is greater now as Trump wants to get re-elected next year and knows that he won’t if he lets the US slide into recession or unemployment rise. China may prefer to wait till after the election but is more likely to opt for the devil it knows.

Second, Trump’s avoidance of retaliation after the attack on Saudi’s oil production facilities in September shows a desire to avoid getting into military conflict in the Middle East.
Third, Brexit risks are on the back burner for now (although they could still come up again next year).

Concluding comment

There is good reason to expect the global economic cycle to turn up in the year ahead just as it did after the growth in 2012 and 2016. This should be positive for growth assets like shares. Finally, for those worried that more and more debt will trade at negative interest rates our view is that this is unlikely: many countries have already sworn off using rates including the US and RBA Governor Lowe says it’s extremely unlikely in Australia. And if growth picks up as we expect the proportion of global debt on negative rates will decline as it did after 2016.

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist 

4 surprises about planning for retirement income

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Franklin Templeton’s 2019 Retirement Income Strategies and Expectations (RISE) Survey uncovered four findings that may surprise you.

  1. Retirement Expenses May Be Higher than Expected

Australians don’t seem to be under any illusions about the cost of retirement. Nearly 3 in 4 pre-retirees are concerned about rising expenses draining their retirement savings. Furthermore, 40% expect their expenses to increase in retirement – well above the 28% who expect them to decrease.

Unfortunately, the experience of retirees doesn’t provide any relief to these anxieties. Concern about rising expenses is even higher among the retiree population, while nearly half of retiree’s state that their expenses have increased since retirement.

Concern about rising expenses doesn’t fade after retirement

 

Higher expenses in retirement is more common than expected

 

Part of being confident in a retirement strategy is understanding what to expect and then planning for that reality. Consider how each type of expense may change over time – do they rise with inflation? Are they impacted by changes in the economy? By anticipating the types of expenses, you will likely face, you can plan for the appropriate income to meet those needs.

 

  1. Health- Related Concerns are Top of Mind Across All Ages

Planning for retirement isn’t just about saving money. It’s also about appreciating the reality of factors that can have a major impact on an individual’s ability to experience retirement success. Our survey indicated that people are acutely aware of the role health might play.

 

  1. Retiree’s Approach to Spending Their Nest Eggs Is Not Always Strategic

One may assume that once someone is living in retirement, they have a plan for how they will spend their nest egg throughout their retirement years. Our results highlight a different story. Over a third (34%) of retirees are winging it, stating they are ‘spending what they need and hoping it will last.’ And even more (36%) are trying to avoid dipping into their savings at all. When we took a closer look as to why, uncertainty emerged as a common theme – whether it’s not understanding how much they can sustainably spend, what future expenses will look like, or what their time horizon is.

  1. Professional Financial Advice is Critical in Planning Retirement Income

For most pre-retirees, planning for their retirement income is a daunting task. How much will they need? Where will it come from? What strategy is best suited to their situation? These are not always questions with simple answers.

While a range of resources exist to help plan for retirement income, individual advice from a licensed financial professional appears to be one of the most effective ones. One survey indicated that working with a financial adviser is strongly tied to better preparation, reduced stress and increased confidence around the transition to retirement.

Plan for Surprises

No matter what your stage of retirement. There may be surprises that can catch you off guard. Having enough confidence in your income sources when you stop working ultimately comes down to knowledge and planning. Work with a financial adviser to help create a custom, written plan to fit your retirement needs and prepare for the challenges.

 

Oliver’s Insights: Australian house prices back from the abyss – seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

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Introduction

After the biggest fall in at least 40 years – with a 10.2% top to bottom fall between September 2017 and June this year – average capital city home prices have turned up again. I thought prices would fall further with a 15% top to bottom fall led by around 25% falls in Sydney and Melbourne. But the facts changed from May – with the election removing the threat to negative gearing & the capital gains tax discount, earlier than expected interest rate cuts & a relaxation of APRA’s 7% interest rate test all pushing prices up again. So, where to from here?

Extreme property views

There are basically two extreme views amongst “property experts”. On the one hand, some real estate spruikers still wheel out the old “property will double every seven years” line. On the other hand, property doomsters say it’s hugely overvalued and over indebted with massive mortgage stress and so a 40% or so crash is inevitable. The trouble with the former is that implies home price growth of 10.3% pa, so even if wages growth picks up to 3.5% (a big ask!) it implies that the average price to income ratio of Australian housing will rise to around 9 times over the next 7 years from around 6 times now and in 14 years’ time it will be 14 times! The trouble with the doomsters is that they’ve been saying that for 15 years and we’re still waiting for the crash. In between, first home buyers are wondering why it’s so hard to do what my and my parent’s generation took for granted: be part of the Aussie dream with a quarter acre block. The reality is it’s far more complicated than these extremes. Here’s seven stylised “facts” regarding Australian property.

First – it’s expensive

This has been the case since early last decade and remains so despite the recent correction in prices:

  • According to the 2019 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey the median multiple of house prices to income is 5.7 times in Australia versus 3.5 in the US and 4.8 in the UK. In Sydney, it’s 11.7 times & Melbourne is 9.7 times.
  • The ratios of house prices to incomes and rents relative to their long-term averages are at the high end of OECD countries.

 

  • The surge in prices relative to incomes has seen household debt relative to household income rise from the low end of OECD countries 25 years ago to the high end now.

These things arguably make residential property Australia’s Achilles heel. But that’s been the case for 15 years or so now.

Second – it’s diverse

While it’s common to refer to “the Australian property market”, in reality there is significant divergence between cities. This divergence has been extreme over the last five years with Perth and Darwin seeing large price falls in response to the end of the mining investment boom, as other cities rose.

The divergence is also evident in gross rental yields that range from 8.7% in regional WA units to 3.1% in Sydney houses.

Third – talk of mortgage stress is overstated

Headlines of excessive mortgage stress have been common for over a decade now. There is no denying housing affordability is poor, household debt is high and some households are suffering significant mortgage stress. But most borrowers appear to be able to service their mortgages. And despite some seeing negative equity and a significant proportion of borrowers switching from interest only to principle & interest loans (which has seen interest only loans drop from nearly 40% of all loans to 23%) there has been no surge in forced sales and non-performing loans. Non-performing mortgages have increased but remain low at around 0.9%. While Australia saw a deterioration in lending standards with the last boom, it was nothing like other countries saw prior to the GFC. Much of the increase in debt has gone to older, wealthier Australians, who are better able to service their loans. Low doc loans are trivial in Australia and the proportion of high loan to valuation ratio loans has fallen as has the proportion of interest only loans.

Fourth – it’s been chronically under supplied

Annual population growth since mid-last decade has averaged 373,000 people compared to 217,000 over the decade to 2005, which requires roughly an extra 75,000 homes per year. Unfortunately, the supply of dwellings did not keep pace with the population surge (see the next chart) so a massive shortfall built up driving high home prices. Thanks to the surge in unit supply since 2015 this is now being worked off, but it follows more than a decade of accumulated under supply which is the main reason why housing has remained relatively expensive in Australia. Not tax breaks or low rates – all of which exist in other countries with far more affordable housing!

Fifth – house prices go up and down

After several episodes of price declines ranging from 5 to 10% across various cities over the last 15 years and 15%, 21% and 31% for Sydney, Perth and Darwin respectively in recent years home buyers should be under no illusion that prices only go up.

Sixth – the housing market remains rate sensitive

While it varies from city to city, despite much scepticism recent rate cuts have helped push up the property market again.

Finally – house price crashes are not easy to forecast

The expensive nature of Australian property and associated high debt levels have seen calls for a property crash pumped out repeatedly over the last 15 years. In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to soaring property prices. Property crash calls were wheeled out repeatedly after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) with one commentator losing a high-profile bet that prices could fall up to 40%. In 2010, a US newspaper, The Philadelphia Trumpet, warned that “Los Angelification” (referring to a 40% slump in LA home prices around the GFC) will come to Australia. Similar calls were made a few years ago by a hedge fund researcher and a hedge fund: “The Australian property market is on the verge of blowing up on a spectacular scale.” Over the years these crash calls have often made it on to 60 Minutes and Four Corners.

But our view remains that to get a national housing crash – as opposed to periodic falls in some cities – we need much higher unemployment, much higher interest rates and/or a big oversupply. But while the risk of recession has increased it remains unlikely, aggressive rate hikes are most unlikely and while property supply still has more upside it’s unlikely to lead to a big oversupply as approvals to build new dwellings are now falling. As we have seen for years now overvaluation and high debt on their own are not enough to bring on a crash.

So where to now?

The rebound in buyer interest since May has seen auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne rise to around 75% and prices lift nearly 2%, albeit other cities are mixed.

 

This has so far come on low volumes, but they now look to be rising. Our base case is that house price gains will be far more constrained than the 10-15% implied by current auction clearance rates. Compared to past cycles debt to income ratios are much higher, bank lending standards are tighter, the supply of units has surged with more to come and this has already pushed Sydney’s rental vacancy rate above normal levels and unemployment is likely to drift up as economic growth remains soft. So, we don’t expect to see a return to boom time conditions and see constrained gains through 2020 – eg around 5% or so. There are three key things to watch:

  • The Spring selling season – if auction clearances remain elevated as listing pick up then it will be a positive sign that the pick-up in the property market has legs.
  • Housing finance commitments – these have bounced but will have to pick up a lot further to get 10-15% price rises.
  • Unemployment – if it picks up significantly in response to slow economic growth then it will be a big constraint on house prices and could result in another leg down in prices.

We don’t see the rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets as a barrier to further monetary easing, but it may reduce the need as it turns the wealth effect from negative to positive. And if it continues to gather pace then expect a tightening of the screws again from bank regulators.

Implications for investors

Over long periods of time residential property provides a similar return to shares (at around 11% pa) but it offers good diversification as it performs well at different times to shares so it has a role to play in investors’ portfolios. The pull back in prices in several cities in the last few years provides opportunities for investors, but just bear in mind that rental yields remain relatively low in Sydney and Melbourne and be wary of areas where there is still a lot of new units to hit. There is probably better value to be found in regional centers and Perth, and Brisbane looks attractive in offering reasonable yields, a low vacancy rate and improving population growth.

Dr. Shane Oliver, Head of investment strategy and Chief Economist.

Market Update 6 September 2019 – Shane Oliver

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Investment markets and key developments over the past week

Good news week! It certainly seemed that way for financial markets with a lot of relatively small positives – the US and China indicating that face to face trade war talks will start again next month, Hong Kong withdrawing the extradition bill, the UK parliament standing up to block a “no-deal Brexit” and confirmation that Italy has a new government without another election – all serving to drive “risk on”. This saw share markets, bond yields, oil and metal prices and commodity currencies like the A$ all rise. The iron ore price was an exception though and it slid a bit further as the global supply outlook continues to improve. For the week US shares rose 1.8%, Eurozone shares gained 2.1%, Japanese shares rose 2.4% and Chinese shares rose 3.9%. Australian shares followed the global lead higher led by IT, consumer stocks, the miners and financials but the defensive nature of the local market constrained it to a 0.7% gain for the week as bond sensitive property, telco and utility stocks all fell in value as bond yields rose.

Good news on trade but just recall we have seen this movie several times before. The news of the resumption of the trade talks is good and likely follows China’s decision a week ago not to retaliate against the latest round of threatened tariffs from the US, which provides hope that with China playing the adult in the room maybe the situation can start to de-escalate. President Trump is likely also under a lot of pressure given the increasing recession talk in the US. He even noted for the first time that were it not for his trade war US shares would be a lot higher which by implication means that he must also acknowledge that the US economy would be a lot stronger. But while the resumption of talks (assuming it happens) is good this will be the fourth attempt with the previous three ending in a Twitter tantrum and more tariffs and so it would be wrong to get too optimistic just yet. No doubt we will hear lots of “the talks are going well” and “they really want a deal” from President Trump again. But we need to see clear evidence that both sides are prepared to compromise. Share markets may still have to fall further to pressure Mr Trump to resolve the issue.

It may be wrong to say that they are connected but China’s more conciliatory approach on trade a week ago and now a more conciliatory stance on Hong Kong with support for the withdrawal of the extradition bill are positive signs given that a week ago hardly anyone expected such a concession. On the one hand the protest leaders have said the move is not enough. On the other, HK leader Carrie Lam has said it’s only the “first step” to resolving the political, economic and social issues causing the deadlock so maybe the risk of military action to put down the protests is receding.

The Brexit debacle is getting up there with the party for laughs. Looks like PM Johnson’s move to suspend Parliament has backfired with those opposed to a “no-deal” Brexit in Parliament (ie leave the EU without a free trade deal) moving to block such an exit on October 31 and to move to block the PM calling an early election. The strategy looks to be to only allow an early election if a no-deal Brexit is off the table. Financial markets like that because of the fear that a no-deal Brexit would wreak havoc on the UK economy as 46% of its exports go to the EU. So, the British pound rose. The only thing is that the Brexit comedy has a long way to go yet so it’s too early to go long the pound. But it does seem that the risk of a no-deal Brexit has receded a bit and no Brexit at all remains possible.

Another word on Italy – Itexit remains as far off as ever! It’s questionable how durable the new Italian coalition government will be. However, recent events highlight several positives. First, the Northern League (NL)/Five Star Movement (5SM) government showed that Italy’s two main populist parties are pragmatic to the point of working with the European Commission to avoid a financial meltdown. Second, 5SM has shown the same again in being able to cooperate with the Democratic Party (PD) to form a new coalition. Third, the new 5SM/PD government will likely push for fiscal stimulus, but this is coming at a time when the rest of Europe is likely to be a bit more flexible given the economic slowdown. Finally, polls show that 68% of Italians support the Euro which is why 5SM and NL had to drop their anti-Euro stance to get a decent share of the vote in the first place. Barring a big economic downturn in Italy and a big new surge in immigration, those waiting for an Itexit to pose a threat to the Eurozone will continue to be disappointed.

Per capita GDP growth – how does Australia compare? Ultimately, it’s real per capita economic growth (or economic growth per person) that matters for material living standards as opposed to just real GDP growth. The problem in Australia is that per capita GDP declined over the last year by 0.2% thanks to headline economic growth of just 1.4% which is less than population growth of 1.6%. While the damage was done in the September and December quarters last year, growth in per capita GDP has been trivial so far this year. The next chart compares per capita GDP growth across Australia, the US, the Eurozone and Japan. As can be seen Australia (the blue line) is the weakest over the last year highlighting the real slowdown in Australia. But it can also be seen that all countries go through periodic soft patches so it’s important to get a longer-term perspective as well. For the whole period shown per capita GDP growth in Australia of 1.3% pa has exceeded that of the other comparable countries. That said over the last decade per capita GDP growth in Australia has slowed to 1% pa which puts it ahead of the Eurozone (at 0.9% pa) but behind the US (1.4% pa) and Japan (1.3% pa). The slowdown in Australia partly reflects payback for the mining boom driven outperformance seen last decade. To get growth in per capita GDP (and hence material living standards) back up in Australia will require a mix of cyclical policies to boost short term growth and structural reforms to enhance productivity which has also declined over the last year. Interesting to note that after allowing for Japan’s falling population it has been doing a lot better than often credited in the last decade or so.

 

 

A “stronger” inflation target for Australia with talk from the Treasurer suggesting it will remain 2-3% (I would hope so -otherwise it will lose credibility) but that it may be strengthened by requiring an explanation when the target is missed. I am not sure that this would change things that much, but it could see the RBA getting more aggressive to bring inflation back to target whenever it is outside it (like now), which is contrary to the more flexible approach adopted just three years ago.

Major global economic events and implications

US economic data got off to a bad start with a sharp fall in the manufacturing conditions ISM and weak construction spending, but it got better as the week went on with a rise in the non-manufacturing ISM, a narrowing in the trade deficit and reasonably solid jobs data. Payrolls rose a less than expected 130,000 in August and continue the trend slowdown in hiring, but the underlying details were solid with very strong growth in the household employment survey, solid gains in hours worked and temporary employment, rising workforce participation and unemployment remaining ultra-low at 3.7%. Meanwhile, wages growth remains relatively soft at 3.2% year on year. The slowdown in the pace of payroll employment and still soft wages growth keeps the Fed on track to cut rates this month, but the jobs market is not weak enough to justify a 0.5% cut so 0.25% remains more likely. Comments by Fed Chair Powell that the Fed is monitoring “significant risks” and will “act as appropriate to sustain this expansion” but that the jobs market is still strong also point to a 0.25% cut as opposed to 0.5%

 

 

Final composite business conditions PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan were confirmed to have risen in August with the services sector still doing better than manufacturers. China’s Caixin PMIs also rose in August. Consequently, despite a fall in the US, the global composite business conditions PMI fell only slightly in August and has been tracking sideways over the last few months holding out a bit of hope for the global economy despite all the talk of recession. It still looks like the slowdowns around 2012 and 2015-16 rather than the slide into what became the GFC recession.

 

 

The key message out of Chinese policy makers over the last week is that more policy stimulus is on the way with the threat to growth clearly remaining a big concern. This was followed up by a cut in banks’ required reserve ratios of 0.5% from September 16 and for some city banks by another 1% from mid October.

Australian economic events and implications

The past week saw June quarter GDP data confirm the ongoing weakness in the Australian economy. June quarter growth wasn’t as bad as feared but it still showed that annual growth has slowed to just 1.4% year on year, its weakest since the GFC and were it not for strong growth in public demand and net exports the economy would have gone backwards. What’s more retail sales continued to fall in July and industry data showing softness in car sales into August raise questions about the impact of the tax and rate cuts – but maybe it’s a bit too early to tell yet. And ANZ job ads fell anew in August pointing to much slower jobs growth ahead as does the huge disconnect between GDP growth of just 1.6%yoy and employment growth running at 2.4%yoy.

But there was also some good news. First, the current account returned to surplus for the first time since 1975. While the trade surplus remained strong in July its likely to decline given the recent plunge in iron ore and coal prices suggesting a return to a current account deficit. However, its likely to remain a lot smaller than seen in recent decades and means that Australia’s dependence on foreign capital is much reduced. Second national average house prices have started to rise again and while it’s hard to see a return to boom time conditions the threat of a debilitating negative wealth effect on consumer spending looks to be receding. Finally, the AIG’s manufacturing and services conditions PMIs rose in August, but this needs to be taken against the CBA’s versions that fell and on average they are pretty soft.

The bottom line is that while recession remains unlikely, growth and activity is well below where it should be and this means ongoing upward pressure on unemployment and subdued wages growth and inflation. This is consistent with the Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Gauge running at just 1.7% year on year in August. So while the RBA left rates on hold in September and seemed a bit oblivious to the run of negative domestic and trade war news over the last month we remain of the view that it will need to ease further and still see the cash rate falling to 0.5% by

year end.

What to watch over the next week?

The key focus of investors over the week ahead will be the European Central Bank on Thursday which is expected to deliver a much-anticipated easing of monetary policy designed to deal with weak growth and inflation chronically below target. We expect the ECB to announce a package of rate cuts, tiering of negative rates on bank reserves and renewed quantitative easing which will result in asset purchases of around €30bn a month.

In the US, core CPI inflation for August (Thursday) is expected to show a small rise to 2.3% year on year and retail sales (Friday) are expected to show reasonable growth. Small business confidence and labour market indicators will also be released on Tuesday.

Chinese data is expected to show a slight dip in CPI inflation (Tuesday) for August to 2.6% year on year, continuing low underlying inflation, some slowing in exports and imports and a rebound in credit growth.

In Australia, expect to see a modest bounce in July housing finance commitments (Monday) and the NAB business survey (Tuesday) and the Westpac/MI consumer survey (Wednesday) to show confidence remaining around average levels.

Outlook for investment markets

Share markets are still at high risk of further weakness/volatility in the months ahead on the back of the ongoing US/China trade war, Middle East tensions and mixed economic data as we are in a seasonally weak part of the year for shares. But valuations are okay – particularly against low bond yields, global growth indicators are expected to improve by next year and monetary and fiscal policy are becoming more supportive all of which should support decent gains for share markets on a 6 to 12-month horizon.

Low yields are likely to see low returns from bonds once their yields bottom out, but government bonds remain excellent portfolio diversifiers.

Unlisted commercial property and infrastructure are likely to see reasonable returns. Although retail property is weak, lower for longer bond yields will help underpin unlisted asset valuations.

The combination of the removal of uncertainty around negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, rate cuts, tax cuts and the removal of the 7% mortgage rate test are leading to a rise in national average capital city home prices driven by Sydney and Melbourne. But beyond an initial bounce, home price gains are likely to be constrained through next year as lending standards remain tight, the record supply of units continues to impact and rising unemployment acts as a constraint.

Cash and bank deposits are likely to provide poor returns as the RBA cuts the official cash rate to 0.5% by early next year.

The A$ is likely to fall further to around US$0.65 this year as the RBA cuts rates further. Excessive A$ short positions, high iron ore prices and Fed easing will help provide some support though with occasional bounces and will likely prevent an A$ crash.